Form, stories and horses to follow for the $500,000 Rolex Grand Prix at Wellington. 30 March 2024.
SATURDAY IN WELLINGTON FAN GUIDE USEF
Saturday, 30 March 2024 7:30PM
on the
THE FORMAT
40 qualified combinations The goal is to not knock down any fences For every fence knocked down, 4 penalties will be added
Combinations have to complete the course within a time allowed , set by the course designer One penalty will be added for each commenced second exceeding the time allowed
Combinations with the equal lowest number of penalties (usually all the clear rounds ) will return for the jump-off The jump-off is a shortened version of Round 1 Speed is key The winner is the combination with the lowest number of penalties and the fastest time in the jump-off.
Saturday, 30 March 2024 7:30PM on the
THE ROLEX GRAND PRIX
The Final Grand Prix of WEF 2024 TODAY
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Predictions powered by
Show jumping allows very little room for error . It takes just millimeters or fractions of a second to dash a competitor’s hopes of winning. When the field is stacked with some of the best in the world (as it is here), you end up with a 1 in 5 chance of winning across some of the most-consistent names in the sport. WHO WINS? As the Grand Finale of the 2024 Winter Equestrian Festival, tonight’s Rolex Grand Prix will punctuate a competitive Wellington season. WINNING IT WON’T BE EASY. AND THAT’S WHAT MAKES IT SO EXCITING TO WATCH. The seemingly low win odds you’ll see on the following pages reflect the level of chance in the sport and the level of greatness in the field.
Enjoy the show.
THE FAVORITE
“The highest-rated horse in the field today. They already finished third here in a 5* Grand Prix last month and will be itching to add a victory to their record.”
Highest win chance in the field
Highest clear chance in the field
The highest-rated Irish horse in the world currently
Learn more about this form guide on page 14.
Highest ranked Irish Rider
THE U.S. CONTENDER
“A super competitive pair. They won last year’s $1 million GP in Thermal and already finished on the podium in a 5* Grand Prix here earlier this month.”
Joint second- highest win chance in the field.
Went clear here earlier this month to finish 3rd
One of the top 5 US horses in the world based on Elo ratings
Learn more about this form guide on page 14.
THE ONE TO WATCH
“This combination are last year’s Rolex Grand Prix winners at WEF. They won with a margin of over 8 seconds, the biggest this Grand Prix has ever seen.”
same as the Brazilian star, Major Tom for Rodrigo Pessoa
A recent Wellington clear at 150 and a recent 160 round to come back from.
Emerging star, one of top five rated 10yo horses in the world
Reigning Rolex Grand Prix winners
Learn more about this form guide on page 14.
BIG CONTENDERS We have huge talent on display today, here are ten that the numbers have identified as ones to track.
A horse rating. The higher the better. See more on page 27.
Wow.
A round 1 clear will mean a lot today.
More R1 clears in this class than any other horse: 3 clears from 3 attempts (all with McLain Ward, USA). HH Azur (2019 winner):
r
Ladriano Z (Daniel Bluman) have two clears in the class previously and can equal HH Azur today.
1
2
5
3
4
Chance of finishing the first round on 0 penalties (based on EquiRatings predictive modelling). Predicted Jumping Clear Chance 1 Current Rating The horse's Elo rating and where that rating ranks among all other horses in this class. 2 Percentage of clear rounds from all CSI5* 160+ attempts over the horse's career (excluding jump-offs) Clear Rate (160+) 3 According to the High Performance Rating (HPR). The HPR measures how good a performance was based on the strength of the fellow competitors, the size of the field, and the final placing. The record HPR is a 120 achieved by winning the 2023 Rolex Grand Prix at CHI Geneva (United Touch S & Richard Vogel). Highest Rated Performance 4 The boxes show the number of penalties received in each of their last 8 top-level classes. The 150, 155 & 160 along the left side are the class heights at which those penalties occurred. Jump-off results are not included. The graph goes chronologically from left (earliest) to right (most-recent). Recent Form 5
Scott Keach Noble De La Chapelle 11 years old
17% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 34th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
594
160
0
12
4
0%
Highest Rated Performance 3/Wellington, FL/2024
155
0
12 16
78
Rider FEI Ranking
412th
150
9 12
Daniel Bluman
36% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Ladriano Z 16 years old
Current Rating Ranked 10th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
727
160
8
4
4
4 11
34%
Highest Rated Performance 2/Wellington FL/2022
155
0
0
97
Rider FEI Ranking
17th
150
0
Adrienne Sternlicht Origa V/h Zuid-pajottenland 10 years old
21% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 31st in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
638
160
9
3
5
15
0%
Highest Rated Performance 6/Wellington, FL/2024
155
1 4
0
71
Rider FEI Ranking
175th
150
11
Hallie Grimes Karoline Of Ballmore 14 years old
19% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 32nd in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
622
160
33%
Highest Rated Performance 1/Wellington FL/2022
155
22
0
101
Rider FEI Ranking
250th
150
0
E 0 E 0 4
Jordan Coyle
13% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Chaccolino 13 years old
Current Rating Ranked 38th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
532
160
2
E
13
0%
Highest Rated Performance 5/Wellington, FL/2024
155
18
4
73
Rider FEI Ranking
76th
150
4 12
8
Paul O'Shea Imerald Van 't Voorhof 16 years old
28% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 16th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
702
160
4 4 0 4
0 8
24%
Highest Rated Performance 1/Hickstead/2019
155
4
87
Rider FEI Ranking
92nd
150
0
Kelli Cruciotti Vanderveen
10% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Gideon 10 years old
Current Rating Ranked 40th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
516
160
8
8
7
8
0%
Highest Rated Performance 19/Wellington, FL/2024
155
4
4
8
42
Rider FEI Ranking
168th
150
R
Rodrigo Pessoa
39% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Major Tom 11 years old
Current Rating Ranked 9th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
730
160
4 8
4 8 5
38%
Highest Rated Performance 1/Barcelona/2023
155
1 4
105
Rider FEI Ranking
77th
150
4
Luis Fernando Larrazabal
29% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Condara 12 years old
Current Rating Ranked 24th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
683
160
4 0 12 8
9
8
11%
Highest Rated Performance 3/Bridgehampton NY/2023
155
4
0
70
Rider FEI Ranking
123rd
150
Nayel Nassar Igor Van De Wittemoere 16 years old
30% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 15th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
705
160
8
0
26%
Highest Rated Performance 1/Tokyo/2021
155
8
99
Rider FEI Ranking
39th
150
0 0 8 8
0
Kendra Claricia Brinkop
34% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
In Time 11 years old
Current Rating Ranked 12th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
721
160
0
4
22%
Highest Rated Performance 2/Calgary, Spruce Meadows AB/2023
155
4
0
0
88
Rider FEI Ranking
97th
150
0
0
0
Jimmy Torano Chewbacca Hcc 12 years old
18% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 33rd in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
614
160
5
8
14
11%
Highest Rated Performance 1/Bridgehampton NY/2023
155
2
0
71
Rider FEI Ranking
315th
150
8 1 8
Henrik Von Eckermann
23% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Calizi 11 years old
Current Rating Ranked 30th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
655
160
0
E
44%
Highest Rated Performance 5/Doha, Al Shaqab/2023
155
R
8
0
82
Rider FEI Ranking
1st
150
19
0
4
Lillie Keenan Argan De Beliard 14 years old
28% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 18th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
701
160
5
9 3 2
15%
Highest Rated Performance 4/Rome - Piazza di Siena/2022
155
0
0 0
88
Rider FEI Ranking
48th
150
0
Ben Maher Dallas Vegas Batilly 11 years old
43% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 4th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
748
160
0 0
5 4
8
47%
Highest Rated Performance 2/Aachen/2023
155
0
0 4
104
Rider FEI Ranking
2nd
150
Alise Oken
24% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Gelvera 13 years old
Current Rating Ranked 26th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
679
160
0 0
4 0 13
2
38%
Highest Rated Performance 3/Falsterbo/2023
155
0
83
Rider FEI Ranking
166th
150
0
Cathleen Driscoll
14% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Arome 14 years old
Current Rating Ranked 36th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
567
160
8
14 13
0%
Highest Rated Performance 6/Thermal CA/2023
155
12
4
9
66
Rider FEI Ranking
64th
150
0
0
Kristen Vanderveen
14% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Bull Run's Jireh 10 years old
Current Rating Ranked 35th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
573
160
0
19
4
14 10
0%
Highest Rated Performance 14/Wellington, FL/2024
155
4
11
50
Rider FEI Ranking
173rd
150
22
Natalie Dean
30% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Acota M 11 years old
Current Rating Ranked 14th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
706
160
12 8
0
0 4
27%
Highest Rated Performance 4/Aachen/2023
155
93
Rider FEI Ranking
95th
150
8 4
0
Laura Kraut
28% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Bisquetta 10 years old
Current Rating Ranked 21st in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
691
160
8
4
12
25%
Highest Rated Performance 6/Rome, Circo Massimo/2023
155
0
8 4 4
83
Rider FEI Ranking
28th
150
1
Margie Goldstein-Engle
28% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Dicas 15 years old
Current Rating Ranked 23rd in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
686
160
4
4
8 R
30%
Highest Rated Performance 2/Miami FL/2019
155
4
8
93
Rider FEI Ranking
120th
150
0
0
Pieter Devos Toupie De La Roque 17 years old
43% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 3rd in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
749
160
0 0 0 0 0
4 4
44%
Highest Rated Performance 2/New York - Governors Island, N.../2022
155
98
Rider FEI Ranking
27th
150
R
Richard Vogel Cepano Baloubet 10 years old
39% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 8th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
732
160
8
4
20
50%
Highest Rated Performance 1/Wellington, FL/2023
155
8
0
99
Rider FEI Ranking
9th
150
0
0
4
Karl Cook Kalinka Van't Zorgvliet 14 years old
43% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 5th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
742
160
4 12 4 4
0
0
45%
Highest Rated Performance 3/Wellington FL/2022
155
92
Rider FEI Ranking
44th
150
4
4
Bliss Heers Quality Star Z 11 years old
10% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 39th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
528
160
0%
Highest Rated Performance 8/Brussels/2023
155
12
7 9
66
Rider FEI Ranking
342nd
150
8 4 8 5
9
Katherine A. Dinan Out Of The Blue Scf 10 years old
23% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 28th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
674
160
4
8
4
50%
Highest Rated Performance 1/Dublin/2023
155
4
0
77
Rider FEI Ranking
138th
150
0
4 4
Shane Sweetnam
47% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
James Kann Cruz 11 years old
Current Rating Ranked 1st in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
768
160
0 8 4
0
58%
Highest Rated Performance 3/Geneva/2022
155
8
0
108
Rider FEI Ranking
11th
150
0 R
Darragh Kenny
36% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Vdl Cartello 17 years old
Current Rating Ranked 11th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
723
160
0
4
0 4
45%
Highest Rated Performance 1/Barcelona/2021
155
8
112
Rider FEI Ranking
16th
150
5 0
8
Kaitlin Campbell Castlefield Cornelious 13 years old
28% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 22nd in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
688
160
8 6
6
0%
Highest Rated Performance 1/Greenwich, CT/2023
155
0 0
74
Rider FEI Ranking
215th
150
0 0 0
Kent Farrington
32% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Landon 11 years old
Current Rating Ranked 13th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
716
160
4
8 29 8 0 8
44%
Highest Rated Performance 3/Ocala, FL/2024
155
0
104
Rider FEI Ranking
5th
150
0
Ashlee Bond Donatello 141 13 years old
39% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 6th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
741
160
8
4
4
19%
Highest Rated Performance 1/Tokyo/2021
155
8
0 R
99
Rider FEI Ranking
59th
150
0
16
Mclain Ward
28% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Ilex 11 years old
Current Rating Ranked 16th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
702
160
0 8 0
4
50%
Highest Rated Performance 3/Wellington, FL/2024
155
5 0 4
70
Rider FEI Ranking
10th
150
4
Cian O'Connor
23% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Maurice 12 years old
Current Rating Ranked 27th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
677
160
5
7
0 0
1
13%
Highest Rated Performance 2/Wellington, FL/2024
155
0
90
Rider FEI Ranking
60th
150
11
14
Rene Dittmer Burlington Riverland 13 years old
13% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 37th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
545
160
12
0%
Highest Rated Performance 1/Rabat/2022
155
59
Rider FEI Ranking
100th
150
4 8 0 8 4 1 4
Harry Charles
39% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Aralyn Blue 13 years old
Current Rating Ranked 7th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
734
160
R
4 4
29%
Highest Rated Performance 1/Barcelona/2023
155
0 8 0
105
Rider FEI Ranking
13th
150
0 0
Peder Fredricson Alcapone Des Carmille 14 years old
28% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 19th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
692
160
4 12
8 0
33%
Highest Rated Performance 1/Aachen/2021
155
4
0
98
Rider FEI Ranking
25th
150
0
4
Petronella Andersson Castres Van De Begijnakker Z 13 years old
28% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Current Rating Ranked 19th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
692
160
2
19%
Highest Rated Performance 5/Wellington FL/2022
155
4
8 0
88
Rider FEI Ranking
99th
150
4 4
4 0
Daniel Coyle
23% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Incredible 11 years old
Current Rating Ranked 29th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
658
160
0
0%
Highest Rated Performance 8/Maastricht/2023
155
8 0
8
1 0
52
Rider FEI Ranking
14th
150
0
4
Andrew Bourns
26% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Sea Topblue 13 years old
Current Rating Ranked 25th in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
680
160
8
4
12
8
30%
Highest Rated Performance 4/Dublin/2022
155
4
0
83
Rider FEI Ranking
198th
150
0
0
Christian Kukuk
44% Predicted Jumping Clear Chance Field Average: 28%
Checker 47 14 years old
Current Rating Ranked 2nd in this class Clear Rate (160+) at 5*/160+ (horse only)
Recent Form
most recent >>
758
160
0 0 8 0 0 9 4 4
51%
Highest Rated Performance 1/Barcelona/2023
155
112
Rider FEI Ranking
20th
150
Elo
?
What is the
The EquiRatings Elo is an objective horse rating (adapted from the Elo system originally developed for chess).
It is a measure of how competitively you are performing and the quality of opponents you are beating . It works like a trading system.
B l
HOW IT WORKS
AT THE CONCLUSION OF EVERY CLASS: Horse A gives Elo points to Horse B . Horse A takes Elo points from Horse C . Horse A ends up with a net Elo gain or loss of Elo points.
A
l
All-time highest Elo: 810
Reached by King Edward (Henrik von Eckermann ) at Gothenburg, Feb 2024
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