Equiratings’ Data-driven insights, storylines & statistics before the Individual Final for the 2025 Jumping European Championships
A CORUÑA EQUIRATINGS’ DATA-DRIVEN INSIGHTS, STORYLINES & STATISTICS AHEAD OF THE 2025 JUMPING EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIPS BEFORE THE INDIVIDUAL FINAL
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DAILY UPDATE - POST DAY 3 KEY INSIGHTS BEFORE THE INDIVIDUAL FINAL AT THE 2025 JUMPING EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIPS
A total of 13 combinations are within 4 penalties of one another before the Individual Final.
A total of 10 combinations have jumped clear over the three rounds . United Touch S, Hello Folie, Albfuehren’s Iashin Sitte, Ermitage Kalone, Katanga vh Dingeshof, Mila, ESI Rocky, Orelie, Chatolinue PS, Imagine N.O.P. The last female athlete to medal at European Championships was Meredith Michaels-Beerbaum with a gold in 2007. 6 female athletes enter Sunday’s Individual Final of which 3 within one rail of the leader: Nadja Peter Steiner (6 ), Janika Sprunger (9 ) & Sophie Hinners (11 ) th th th Across the last 7 European Championships (2011 onwards), only two Day 3 leaders did not end up with an individual medal . Sergio Alvarez Moya finished 6th in 2015 Jens Fredricson finished 5 in 2023 th
The last 6 European Champions have been in a podium position after Day 3
Only 2 riders have successfully defended Individual European titles. Defending champion Steve Guerdat enters the Individual Final in a bronze medal position. If he wins, he would be the first rider to win back-to-back European Championships on different horses . Across the last 7 European Championships (2011 onwards), the average clear rate for R1 of the Individual Final is 21% and 28% for R2 . BUT the clear rates for the 2025 European Championships so far have been above average .
| INDIVIDUAL WIN & MEDAL CHANCES BEFORE THE INDIVIDUAL FINAL ACCORDING TO THE EQUIRATINGS PREDICTION CENTRE
| CLASS STATISTICS OF THE INDIVIDUAL FINALISTS
5* 160 NON JUMP-OFF ROUNDS IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS
INCLUDES BOTH 160 ROUNDS FROM LA CORUNA
| WHERE DID THE INDIVIDUAL GOLD MEDALISTS RANK AFTER DAY 3? ONLY 1 OF THE PAST 7 INDIVIDUAL GOLD MEDALISTS RANKED OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 3 GOING INTO THE INDIVIDUAL FINAL
ONLY 1 OF THE PAST 7 INDIVIDUAL GOLD MEDALISTS DID NOT ADD PENALTIES TO THEIR POST-DAY 3 SCORE
| HOW MANY CLEARS CAN WE EXPECT IN THE INDIVIDUAL FINAL?
CLEAR RATES OF THE INDIVIDUAL FINAL FROM THE LAST 7 EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIPS
| ONLY TWO RIDERS HAVE WON BACK-TO-BACK EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIP TITLES
It has been 40 years since we last saw a rider win back-to-back Individual European titles
Steve Guerdat could become the third rider to do so, he currently sits in 3 position after Day 2. rd He would be the first rider to do so on different horses. He won the 2023 title on Dynamix de Belheme. This year, he rides Albführen’s Iashin Sitte. They are one of 10 combinations who have not yet knocked a fence over 3 rounds of competition.
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THE LAST 10 EUROPEAN CHAMPIONS ALONGSIDE THEIR FINISHING SCORE & WINNING MARGIN
None of the last 10 European Champions completed their championship on 0 penalties.
WHAT IS THE ELO RATING?
CAREER COMPETITIVENESS The EquiRatings Elo is an objective horse rating (adapted from the Elo system originally developed for chess). A measure of how competitively you are performing and the quality of opponents you are beating. The rating works like a trading system: at every competition, a horse takes Elo points from the horses it beats while also giving away Elo points to the horses who finish ahead of it. The higher the Elo, the better. The all-time record is an 822 reached by King Edward (Henrik von Eckermann) in 2024. WHY WE USE ELO The EquiRatings Elo has predictive power. Horses with higher ratings jump clear more often.
Team show jumping is as much about managing risk as it is about maximizing performance. The table below shows how the EquiRatings Elo has been a strong guide to improving the chance of clears and reducing the chance of higher penalty rounds. The data is based on standard scoring 5-star rounds at 160+ in the 10-years from 2014 to September 2023.
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